Boy Movies Special Edition: Who’s winning these damn Oscars?

Butheads, let's ride

Right, what’s all this, then? A new Boy Movies in your inbox? But it’s Friday! I know. I’m shocked, too. This unprecedented event is definitively not Issue #21, which will be released on Tuesday as per the usual update cadence, but I saw all the other film writers making their final Oscar predictions and I got jealous. I wanted one (1) more excuse to talk about my most treasured Austin Butler in Elvis. I’m down so bad that I listened to his episode of WTF with Marc Maron yesterday and almost cried on the train while he was talking about his dead mom. You should know that he exclusively refers to Leonardo DiCaprio as “Leonardo.”

Anyway, the Oscars are on Sunday. What a season it’s been! I adored many of the nominated films, felt totally ambivalent about others, and loathed a small handful. It’s so much fun to feel engaged with this stupid shit when everything else about life kind of sucks. Going into the weekend, several categories feel completely unpredictable, which is fun for me, a person who adores chaos (has it been enough time that I can publicly say Anthony Hopkins really deserved his win in 2021?). I guess I’m not really here to deliver you any “predictions” — like, don’t blame me if you lose your office Oscar pool — because I am but a lowly television writer who barely leaves her home and in truth I know absolutely nothing, but again: It’s fun to care.

Best Picture

This category simply does not need ten nominees. I have seen all of them other than All Quiet on the Western Front — sorry but what am I supposed to do? Watch All Quiet on the Western Front? — and was unmoved by Women Talking, more exhausted by Triangle of Sadness’ utter lack of subtlety than most critics, and nodded off twice during Avatar: The Way of Water, though I am on record believing James Cameron should be allowed to do whatever he wants forever. Only three girl movies made it in (the aforementioned Women Talking, my girl Tár, and Elvis), but such is life. Noted boy movie Everything Everywhere All at Once¹ is the safest bet, but I do think Tom Cruise has done an admirable job of performing the role of normal person (he’s not fooling anyone, but he’s made a solid effort) during this awards campaign. Still, it’s not enough for Maverick to supersede the momentum of that extended trip through the Daniels’ conjoined psyches.

When was the last time a girl movie won Best Picture, huh? Okay, it was Nomadland in 2020, but before that it was Chicago in 2002. No one loves anything the way the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences loves a boy movie. To be clear, in a perfect universe, Tár would have this in the bag. In a utopia, Baz Luhrmann would get his “I’m the king of the world!” moment.

Will Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once

Best Director

I’m far from the first person to say this, but the fact that we live in a world where Steven Spielberg is making movies that are too esoteric for the Oscars is so cuckoo. Every day I have to re-accept that very few understood what The Fabelmans was actually doing and bask in the knowledge that I did understand. Also, Baz Luhrmann should’ve been nominated. Without him, and lacking many others who actually made interesting movies, this category is a big ol’ yawn. Just give it to the Daniels and keep it moving, I guess. Yawn. Yawn!

Will Win: Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Best Actor

Girl… I’m near tears. All week I have been receiving messages from friends and loved ones asking me if I think my dearest Austin Butler will win. Here’s the deal: I don’t believe in woo woo curses or the concept of jinxing until I do, and I’m afraid to say yes because I believe I alone have the power to curse him and if he does not win it will be my fault. The problem is that this is actually the best lineup this category has had in years, and a case could be made for giving it to just about any of these dudes. That said, and apologies to Paul Mescal (who I recently started finding sexy) and Bill Nighy (who I have always found sexy), but of course this category is a three way race between Austin, famous actress Colin Farrell, and Brendan Fraser.

We all like Brendan Fraser, but he should lose on account of The Whale being ass. Everyone who said they liked the performances in this was lying — both he and Hong Chau have done great work elsewhere, but there was nothing good to be found in this community theater production of Darren Aronofsky’s twisted fantasies of what the life of an obese person is like. Colin… my god. How can I argue against him? I can’t. I’ve loved him too much and for too long. But the fact is that Austin has completely lost touch with himself and possibly reality. A steady stream of well-delivered “feckin”s and pathetic wet cat eyes and the gentle handling of a friend breakup are award-worthy, but when a young man exorcizes the spirit of a long deceased cultural icon who has been mythologized past the point of comprehension… he not only deserves to win, but he will win. I’m defying my superstitions and saying it now. Plus, the way he handles himself in public really reminds me of Jeremy Strong, another person I think should win every award he’s ever nominated for. I mean, Austin quoted Martha Graham from memory on Marc Maron. What do you want from me?

Will Win: ANAHEIM, CALIFORNIA’S OWN AUSTIN BUTLER, ELVIS

Best Actress

As we all know, this category is a two way race between Andrea Riseborough and Ana de Armas.

No, obviously it’s going to either Michelle Yeoh or Cate Blanchett. It’s hard to argue against Yeoh, who is a wonderful actor and carries much of Everything Everywhere and has in many ways run the perfect Oscar campaign. Meanwhile, Blanchett did true once in a lifetime shit in Tár — but she already has two Oscars, and the last one, as many of us love to forget, was for Blue Jasmine, Woody Allen’s last-ever relevant movie. (Is he dead yet?) Bleh! Ben Empey made the astute observation in his own newsletter that Blanchett might be a lock if only because she won the BAFTA, which has historically been a good marker for predicting acting winners. Call it a hunch, but I’m still going Yeoh.

Will Win: Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Best Supporting Actor

I mean, talk about running the perfect Oscar campaign. Despite not having health insurance and being totally ignored by all the fake fucks now clamoring to work with him, Ke Huy Quan has spent the past few months giving effusive, emotional speeches that are basically made to go viral. He also recently took a photo with Jeremy Strong. That’s not really relevant to anyone other than me, but I thought it was cute. Quan’s got this, and he’s earned it not only for selling that laundry and taxes line, but for knowing how to play the game better than anyone else this year. I look forward to the inevitable cut to Spielberg proudly beaming.

But wouldn’t it be fun for Brian Tyree Henry or Barry Keoghan to randomly take this? Honestly, they both deserve it for making it out of the disaster that was Eternals unscathed and going on to do cool, interesting work both.

Will Win: Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Best Supporting Actress

It is truly a joke and a half that Dame Rage and Trowma herself was even nominated in this category. In any case, I’m reacting to it with a big ol’ shrug, though I’m going to put my money behind Kerry Condon, who is 1. a Better Call Saul alum, something that is important to me, and 2. gave The Banshees of Inisherin’s most nimble turn, in my opinion. I thought she was lovely, and I would like to see a quiet, ruminative performance win. It bums me out that Angela Bassett doesn’t have an Oscar already (if anyone wants my mom’s contact information she’d be happy to tell you all about why Bassett deserved it for What's Love Got to Do with It), but the Marvel of it all might have worked against her in the end. I don’t think she should be counted out yet, but again, Condon has that BAFTA.

I have not stopped thinking about Hong Chau’s response to being nominated. She seems like the chillest person and I look forward to her one day winning an Oscar for something that’s not as rancid as The Whale.

Will Win: Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin

Best Original Screenplay

Now, if I was in the Academy, I would have cast a vote for The Fabelmans, but I have never been invited to join and I suspect grandpa Steve’s coming out tale will go home empty-handed. Tár would’ve been my second choice, of course, and also I think I was living in a world of my own imagining where Martin McDonagh winning here was certain? But with Everything Everywhere All at Once more or less being a guarantee for Best Picture (literally watch Avatar win after I so confidently announced this) I think we can all see where this is headed.

Will Win: Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Best Adapted Screenplay

Every time I read an Oscar predictions piece that just haaaaas to mention Top Gun: Maverick’s nomination being suuuuuch a surprise I let out a long fart noise. The real tea is that they should teach Maverick’s screenplay in film classes — like it or not, it’s a tight script! Certainly tighter than Glass Onion, which I dislike more and more every time I think about it. The Writers Guild gave this one to Women Talking, which is why I’m inclined to lean toward Sarah Polley. Sure, why not? I mean, the women were certainly talking! No one can argue with that!

Will Win: Sarah Polley, Women Talking

Those are all the categories I feel comfortable/am actually interested in making predictions for. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed will lose Best Documentary despite being one of the best movies of last year, period, and if Babylon wins anything I’ll eat my hat. Not really, but how am I supposed to respect Damian Chazelle? He’s literally just a guy from New Jersey. He could be my cousin.

Happy Oscars! Remember to leave milk and cookies out for the Flash — word on the street is that he’ll be entering the speed force for the second year in a row.

1. Which I did like fine — more than some, less than others — and I still think every single one of us is being too dramatic about.